(All ratings and rankings arefrom the Ken Pomeroy poll at kenpom.com)
Today is a pivotal game for this Missouri basketball team, as a win would catapult them into the Big 12 race but a loss would all but put them out of it. Its also huge for Texas, as a win would give them wins over the 2 best teams in the north with a farily easy schedule remaining the rest of the way to the postseason.
Breakdown of Missouri:
If you look at the scouting report, this is a truly dynamic team. Ranked 25 on offense and 32 on D this team can get it done on both ends. A key stat that steps out is the fact that they are 17th in Offensive turnover percentage while they are 14th in Defensive turnover percentage meaning they don't give the ball up but they take the ball away at an astonishing rate. Running the fastest 40 minutes in basketball has produced the 10th fastest tempo in NCAA this season averaging 73 possessions a game which is 6 more than the average team. A couple of the downfalls of this team is how few times they get to the free throw line. They are actually ranked 273rd in that category. Rebounding has been a statistical oddity for the black and gold this season, while they have hung tough with very good rebounding teams like Kansas State, Old Dominon, and Illinois they have looked very bad at times like against Oral Roberts and other weak schools. This shows they have the ability to rebound with the best if they bring the intensity.
Good Wins: #20 Vanderbilt, #18 Illinois, #69 Old Dominon, #41 Nebraska, #46 Kansas State, #57 Iowa State
Losses: #22 Georgetown, #59 Colorado, #29 Texas A&M
Breakdown of Texas
This team is truly electric. Ranked 4 in the country according to kenpom, they are also 24th on offense and ranked 1st in Defense. They allow the lowest field goal percentage in the country even after playing teams like Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, and Kansas. They don't the ball over with a 30th ranking in Turnover percentage they are also ranked 13th in offensive steal percentage meaning basically nobody steals the ball from them. They run an average tempo, at a 153 ranking. A very big weakness that the Longhorns have is their free throw shooting, with a 250 ranking and a 66.2% average. This team is lead by Sophomore Jordan Hamilton, he is just a solid all around player they also have a very good supporting cast that is going to be hard for anyone in the country to stop.
Good Wins: #18 Illinois, #24 North Carolina, #34 Michigan State, #29 Texas A&M, #3 Kansas
Losses: #6 Pittsburgh, #44 Southern California, #13 Connecticut
Keys to the Win (Missouri):
1. Come out fast: Texas is known for coming out fast, getting you into a hole and then playing suffocating D so you cant get back into the game.
2. Bring your lunchpail, get to the glass: Missouri has been most successful when they are about even or ahead of their opponent in rebounds. So obviously this is a key against an average rebounding team.
3. Tempo. Tempo. Tempo.: When this mizzou team has been able to beat the longhorns the past 3 years they have won because of their fastest 40 minutes style of play, this will be huge.
Keys to Win (Texas):
1. Shut down the point: The tigers are best when either Mike Dixon or Phil Pressey are getting assists and knocking down shots, if you can shut one down or get one or the other in foul trouble you could see this dynamic offensive struggle a bit.
2. Slllloooowwww it down: This is the goal of any team that is playing against Missouri basketball
3. Get Ratliffe and Bowers in foul trouble early: Mizzou has had trouble when they both get into foul trouble and they have to rely on Safford and Moore.
Predictions:
Missouri is awful on the road, and the kenpom rankings give them only a 17% chance to win tonight. The website is projecting a 10 point win. I think its closer than that but still a Texas win. 74-69 Texas.
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